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species' limited supply from wild stocks. Once product started turning up in volume the price collapsed. Murray cod is a perfect example of a fi sh launched on a romantically driven marketing itch rather than through due diligence. It fetched a tuna-like A$35 per kilo as wild-caught 20-30 kilo trophies in Sydney, then fell to as low as $5 per kilo when farmed, plate-sized specimens arrived unheralded on the auction fl oor. Secondly, many of the foot soldiers who were going to turn a burning passion for farming and fi sh into their retirement fund were overly ambitious. They soon found fi sh farming was based on unforgiving scientifi c rules. Most of them had little understanding of what those rules were, couldn't come to grips with the idea there were any rules and, you guessed it, were worm fodder in the aquaculture graveyard. Thirdly, the banks, after having their fi ngers burnt up to their elbows, became leery of aquaculture. At one stage, one bank even had a dedicated aquaculture offi cer to handle enquiries over three states. He was topping up the ATMs and moonlighting as a school crossing attendant the last time I caught up with him. Fourthly, once it became obvious this was serious stuff and the fi rst rule of aquaculture was adopted as a mantra – if you don't get the site selection and the system design right, you're beaten before you start – getting access to optimum sites came into confl ict with everyone else who wanted that site, as either part of their ambience or part of their amenity. The costs and time delays before even a sod was turned frightened off all but the totally committed. Fifthly – and the order here is arguable – in some states, when the government did get behind aquaculture, their efforts were not based on scientifi c or commercial reality. To paraphrase the late, great Chairman Mao, millions of dollars were squandered and thousands of papers were published. But how are we going? Pretty well in fact, all things considered. You can buy farmed oysters, salmon and trout at any supermarket seafood counter, fi shmonger or wet market. Mussels are readily available at the latter two and some of the former. Asian wet markets in the state capitals all carry live barramundi, silver or jade perch, Murray cod, abalone, mussels and oysters. The tuna feedlots at Port Lincoln are still busy, despite the moans and groans about the high Aussie dollar, as are the pearl producers in tropical Western Australia and the Top End. They're also griping about the global fi nancial crisis. Prawn and barramundi farmers in tropical Queensland, who sell a processed product, have logistical problems getting their produce to market in competition with the very good, in most cases, frozen products coming out of South East Asia, notably Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. But overall, they're making a buck, albeit a very skinny one in a lot of cases. The sectors have rationalised to rescue farms that have trouble justifying their investment economically and others have just folded their tents and moved on. Economies of scale have dropped production costs and improved methodology, genetic selection and improved diets have helped offset rising costs, particularly transport and power costs. And it has to be said that our governments, both state and federal, have in place a thousand policies to hold on to their jobs, but not one that I can see to keep anyone else employed, and that goes double for aquaculture. Is it pretty much the same on your side of The Ditch, Kiwi? Or, as we'd be saying if Abel Tasman had had a bit more foresight,"Hoe meer dingen veranderen, hoe meer ze hetzelfde blijven." Climate will IMPACT ON aquaculture BY OIVEND BERGH W ater temperatures are extremely diverse around the European Union. Researchers have been surveying the same areas since the 1900s and have noted systematic shifts between colder and warmer periods. Climate change is nothing new. The natural components of climate change have always occurred. At the moment, the colder period is getting shorter and warmer. However, as aquaculture is a young industry it is new to us. The average water temperature is increasing. However, the observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed seas rather than in open water. Studies of the future climate show air temperatures will rise by 2-4˚ Celsius this century, and sea temperatures by 1.5 to 2˚C off the Norwegian coast. Observations on wild stocks go back over 100 years. The general pattern is that when temperatures rise, fi sh move north. At present we are seeing southern species moving into the North Sea. Greater numbers of cod can be found in the Barents Sea, and more than ever before in the North Sea. However, increasing episodes of wild weather such as storms and hurricanes may be more important than ocean temperatures. Extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent and intense, and this trend is likely to continue. They will increase stress in fi sh pens and consequently result in higher rates of disease and mortality. Wild stocks constantly adapt to climate change, but aquaculture must be adapted. Ignoring climate change will be disastrous in the long term for aquaculture. While warmer waters have many advantages for producers, there are biological limits. The growth rate for Atlantic salmon is greatest when the water temperature is about 14 degrees. Extreme temperatures also cause stress, which in turn weakens immune defences and leads to more disease. Disease outbreaks in large-scale aquaculture may have important ecological and economical consequences. Several diseases common in salmon and cod aquaculture, such as francisellosis, vibriosis and furunculosis, are typically associated with higher water temperatures and the industry will likely see increased parasitic infections. On the other hand, cold-water diseases such as winter ulcers and coldwater vibriosis could become less frequent. Things will be different in 40 years and it seems likely these environmental changes will lead to a general movement of farmed species northwards. We will need more expensive and robust farms. Adaption is an extremely long-term process, but it must be done if the industry is to survive. Adapted from an address by Oivend Bergh of the Institute of Marine Research Norway to Aquaculture Europe 2011 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2012 ■ NZ AQUACULTURE ■ 13