Issue link: https://viewer.e-digitaleditions.com/i/142338
industryfocus It's a hit-and-miss procedure. Bills says Emmerson has more than 200 targets, with about 20 looking positive on the scale of positive survey results. "That's where your probability of success comes in," he says. In Emmerson's case, the probability of finding a big gold deposit is "about five per cent". Virtually all small-scale exploration and mining is done using borrowed money, with all the processes – surveys, drilling, assaying and mining – outsourced to service providers. A probability of success of five per cent is the same as saying there's a 95 per cent chance of failure. But gold explorers still manage to attract capital from investors, who reserve some portion of their funds for 'speculative' plays. Some of these plays have paid off quite spectacularly in the past. An investor in Newcrest, Australia's biggest gold-mining corporation, would have seen his or her funds increase sixfold between 2003 and 2008 (and dive by 60 per cent since then). That sounds juicy but it's ho-hum in the world of gold. Consider someone who invested $1,000 in Sirius Resources in the middle of last year, to see it grow to $87,720 by March 15 this year. Gold miners follow a long, systematic path which can lead to success or failure, but the money comes from investors who typically don't have an 11% industry growth annually, 2008–13 $15bn annual revenue across the industry Australia's gold industry Gold rushes in the 1800s launched the industry 24,307 workers employed 195 businesses in the industry equivalent long-term focus. Those who understand the probability of success may be prepared to stay in it for the long haul. And it is a long haul. If a company wishes to develop a mine, it will need to apply to government for an exploration licence over the area in which it's interested. If the survey results are promising, the licence will give that company priority to apply for a mining lease. "A mining proposal must identify the project's objectives, description, location and layout plans, while also identifying any environmental impacts and subsequent mine closure and rehabilitation plans," explains Dr Ivor Roberts, mineral titles executive director of the Western Australia Department of Mines and Petroleum. Roberts's jurisdiction is a particularly busy one for precious metals. Western Australia produces about 75 per cent of the nation's gold or about 5.8 million ounces in 2011–2012, worth $9.4 billion (gold is always measured in ounces, but 5.8 million ounces is about 164.4 tonnes, in case you're curious). There are more than 140 active gold mines in WA and more than 6,000 granted mining leases, mainly in the Goldfields region in the state's south-east. Indeed, Australia is the world's number two gold producer, behind China. Beyond issuing licences, the government will likely have something to say about the type "A method Emmerson has used involves a helicopter fitted with an electromagnetic loop that can sense conduction underground associated with sulphides in copper." This image: Emmerson's Heli Tem project. 17